The United States is set to export a record volume of fuel ethanol for the second consecutive year, with exports and domestic production expected to remain near record levels through 2026. The sustained growth is largely attributed to strong international demand and an anticipated record U.S. corn harvest.
During the first seven months of 2025, U.S. fuel ethanol exports averaged 138,000 barrels per day, the highest January-through-July average since the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) began tracking such data in 2010. This figure represents a 9% increase over the 2024 annual record. The surge reflects both expanding global demand and a modest rise in domestic production capacity.
Exports Account for a Growing Share of U.S. Production
With exports climbing and domestic consumption remaining steady, international markets are taking a larger share of U.S. ethanol output. Between January and July 2025, exports represented 13% of domestic production, up from a record 12% in 2024 and a pre-pandemic high of 11% in 2018.
The Netherlands has driven most of the year-over-year increase, highlighting Europe’s growing appetite for U.S. ethanol. According to Vortexa tanker tracking data, as the Netherlands imports more ethanol from the United States, it has simultaneously expanded re-exports to the United Kingdom, France, and Ireland — key European markets with active biofuel programs.
Other major buyers include India, the United Kingdom, and Canada, all of which have fuel-blending mandates that sustain steady demand. Canada remains the top destination for U.S. ethanol exports.
Production Rises Despite Slower Domestic Consumption
The expansion of the export market has spurred corresponding growth in domestic ethanol production, pushing output beyond the pre-pandemic peak reached in 2018. This increase has occurred even as U.S. consumption remains below pre-pandemic levels due to reduced gasoline use.
Because nearly all motor gasoline sold in the U.S. contains about 10% ethanol by volume, ethanol demand closely mirrors gasoline consumption trends.
In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, the EIA projects that ethanol production and net exports will remain near record highs in 2026. This outlook reflects the combined effects of record corn production and sustained international demand.
New Trade Agreements Expected to Boost Exports
On October 26, the Trump administration announced new reciprocal trade agreements with Malaysia and Cambodia, along with frameworks for similar agreements with Thailand and Vietnam. These deals are expected to further benefit U.S. ethanol exporters.
According to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR), all four agreements include provisions to reduce tariffs and expand access for U.S. agricultural products. Vietnam and Thailand have pledged to purchase a combined $5.5 billion in U.S. agricultural goods. Malaysia committed to granting “significant preferential market access” for American products, including fuel ethanol, dairy, poultry, pork, rice, and horticultural goods.
Cambodia agreed to eliminate tariffs on all U.S. products and to recognize U.S. regulatory oversight for agricultural exports, reducing potential trade barriers.
Growth Energy CEO Emily Skor said the new agreements will “create and enhance new markets for American farmers.” U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer added that the deals show “America can maintain tariffs to shrink the goods trade deficit while opening new markets for American farmers, ranchers, workers, and manufacturers.”
Japan Expands Agricultural Purchases
In a related announcement, the administration confirmed that Japan will purchase $8 billion worth of U.S. corn, soybeans, rice, ethanol, and other agricultural products.
“This announcement builds on our earlier agreements with Japan, opens new markets, and honors the hard work of our farmers, ensuring prosperity for rural communities,” Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said.
