Argus, a global provider of energy and commodity price reporting, has introduced the world’s first calculated price assessments for e-SAF, sustainable aviation fuel made through electrolysis. These modelled production costs are designed to bring greater clarity to the emerging e-SAF market, helping fuel suppliers and airlines negotiate offtake deals and navigate increasingly stringent environmental rules, according to the press release.
Governments have acknowledged that bio-based SAF alone cannot fully decarbonise air travel, largely because its primary feedstocks, especially waste oils like used cooking oil, are limited. This constraint has pushed the aviation sector toward e-SAF, a synthetic fuel created using hydrogen and carbon dioxide.
Regulatory mandates requiring the use of e-SAF will begin in 2028 in the UK and in 2030 across the EU, with heavy penalties planned for companies that fail to comply. However, the industry remains far behind schedule. Argus currently tracks about 70 proposed e-SAF projects across the UK and EU, yet none of them has secured a final investment decision. Given that constructing a commercial-scale facility typically takes three to four years, investors must commit within the next 12 months if the region is to have any chance of meeting its upcoming obligations.
Because the technology is still in its early stages, producing e-SAF is significantly more expensive than both bio-SAF and traditional jet fuel. Argus’ cost calculations for November 2025 estimate that e-SAF in northwest Europe is priced at roughly 13 times the cost of conventional aviation fuel and around 3.5 times higher than bio-SAF made using the HEFA SPK process.
Argus Media’s chairman and CEO, Adrian Binks, emphasised the importance of long-term purchase agreements in unlocking financing for new plants. “Producers need firm offtake commitments to secure funding, but buyers are understandably hesitant to pledge tens of millions of dollars. This hesitation has created a gap between mandated supply and actual demand, effectively freezing investment,” he noted. Binks said the newly published modelled costs provide an independent, transparent benchmark that companies throughout the e-SAF supply chain can use to guide long-term planning.
The weekly indexes calculate e-SAF production costs in the Amsterdam–Rotterdam–Antwerp (ARA) hub, expressed in both euros and US dollars per tonne. Prices are reported with and without capital expenditure included.
These assessments enhance Argus’ broader SAF portfolio, which already includes well-established price references for HEFA-SPK bio-SAF in northwest Europe, the Asia-Pacific region, and the United States. The methodology behind the new e-SAF calculations draws on the company’s extensive experience across hydrogen, natural gas, and biofuels markets.
