The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has maintained its 2026 and 2027 production forecasts for renewable diesel, biodiesel and other biofuels, including sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), in its September Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), while making a modest downward revision to its 2026 renewable diesel consumption outlook.
The EIA expects US renewable diesel production to average 240,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2026, rising to 290,000 bpd in 2027. Both forecasts are unchanged from the agency’s August STEO. Production averaged 190,000 bpd in 2025.
Renewable diesel outlook remains largely unchanged
The September outlook points to continued growth in renewable diesel production over the next two years. The forecast of 290,000 bpd in 2027 represents a substantial increase from the 2025 average of 190,000 bpd.
The EIA has, however, lowered its 2026 forecast for renewable diesel consumption to 200,000 bpd, from 210,000 bpd in its previous outlook. Its 2027 consumption forecast remains unchanged at 290,000 bpd, compared with an average of 150,000 bpd in 2025.
The agency also revised its 2026 net-import forecast for renewable diesel to -40,000 bpd, compared with -30,000 bpd in the August outlook. A negative net-import figure indicates that exports exceed imports. For 2027, the EIA continues to forecast zero net imports.
The combination of rising production and the revised 2026 consumption forecast highlights a market in which domestic renewable diesel output is expected to expand faster than consumption during the year, according to the EIA’s projections.
Biodiesel production forecast holds steady
The EIA left its biodiesel production forecasts unchanged at 100,000 bpd for 2026 and 110,000 bpd for 2027.
That compares with average biodiesel production of 80,000 bpd in 2025. The agency expects net biodiesel imports to remain at zero in 2026 before reaching 10,000 bpd in 2027.
Biodiesel consumption is also forecast at 100,000 bpd in 2026 and 110,000 bpd in 2027, both unchanged from the August STEO. Consumption averaged 70,000 bpd in 2025.
The forecasts therefore point to gradual growth in both US biodiesel production and consumption rather than the sharper production expansion projected for renewable diesel.
Other biofuel production includes SAF
The EIA’s broader “other biofuel” category is forecast to average 40,000 bpd in 2026 and 50,000 bpd in 2027, with both projections unchanged from August.
The category includes renewable heating oil; renewable jet fuel, including SAF, alternative jet fuel and biojet; renewable naphtha; renewable gasoline; and other emerging biofuels at different stages of development and commercialisation.
Production of these fuels averaged 40,000 bpd in 2025. The EIA expects net imports of other biofuel to remain at zero in both 2026 and 2027, also unchanged from its previous outlook.
Consumption is forecast to follow the same trajectory as production, averaging 40,000 bpd in 2026 and 50,000 bpd in 2027. Consumption stood at 40,000 bpd in 2025.
What the forecasts indicate for US biofuels
Across the three categories, the September STEO presents a relatively stable near-term outlook for US biofuel production forecasts. Renewable diesel remains the largest growth area among the fuels covered, while biodiesel is projected to expand at a slower pace.
The unchanged outlook for the broader other-biofuel category is also significant because it encompasses SAF and other emerging fuels whose production is still developing. The EIA’s figures show continued projected growth in this segment, although the agency does not provide a separate SAF production forecast in the supplied material.
The revised renewable diesel consumption figure for 2026 is the main change from the previous month’s outlook. At the same time, the EIA continues to project strong production growth through 2027.
Bioenergy Business Analysis
The September STEO reinforces the importance of renewable diesel within the US renewable-fuels market. Production is forecast to rise from 190,000 bpd in 2025 to 240,000 bpd in 2026 and 290,000 bpd in 2027, while biodiesel production grows more gradually. For producers and investors, the difference between the two trajectories is an important indicator of where projected supply growth is concentrated.
The outlook also highlights the growing breadth of the US biobased fuels market beyond conventional biodiesel and renewable diesel. Because the EIA’s “other biofuel” category includes SAF and several emerging fuels, its projected increase to 50,000 bpd in 2027 points to continued expansion across developing renewable-fuel pathways. However, the supplied STEO figures do not establish how much of that volume will come specifically from SAF.
The most immediate point to monitor is therefore the relationship between renewable diesel production and consumption. The EIA’s lower 2026 consumption forecast, alongside higher projected production and negative net imports, makes market balance an important consideration for the sector as producers move towards the 2027 outlook.
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