Corporate SAF demand could support between 1.0 million and 1.9 million tonnes of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) by 2030, according to a new market study released by the International Air Transport Association (IATA), Airbus and Accenture, as the aviation industry seeks to expand production and distribute the high cost of lower-emission jet fuel across a broader base of buyers.
Key Takeaways
- Corporate purchases of SAF Environmental Attribute Certificates (EAc) could support 1.0 million–1.9 million tonnes of SAF by 2030, compared with an estimated 323,000 tonnes in 2024.
- Global SAF production is expected to reach 2.4 million tonnes in 2026, representing just 0.8% of total jet fuel consumption.
- SAF remains two to three times more expensive than conventional jet fuel, while environmental attribute certificates typically cost $150–$500 per tonne of CO₂-equivalent emissions abated.
- The study identifies clear carbon accounting rules, interoperable tracking systems and simpler purchasing mechanisms as priorities for unlocking corporate demand.
Corporate SAF Demand Emerges as a Potential Market Catalyst
The study identifies corporate procurement of SAF environmental attributes as a potential mechanism for increasing market participation and helping finance aviation’s transition to lower-emission fuels. Companies could purchase certificates to account for emissions reductions associated with business travel and air cargo shipments without needing to receive the physical fuel themselves.
This approach relies on a robust book-and-claim system that allows companies to claim eligible emissions reductions regardless of where the SAF is delivered and consumed. The system could expand the pool of buyers beyond airlines, helping distribute the additional cost of SAF across more participants in the aviation value chain.
The opportunity comes as SAF production remains limited relative to total aviation fuel demand. Although SAF can significantly reduce aviation emissions compared with conventional jet fuel, the study expects production to reach only 2.4 million tonnes in 2026, or 0.8% of total jet fuel use.
High Prices and Accounting Uncertainty Remain Barriers
Cost remains a central obstacle to wider adoption. SAF is currently two to three times more expensive than conventional jet fuel, while SAF environmental attribute certificates generally cost between $150 and $500 per tonne of CO₂-equivalent emissions abated. Companies surveyed in the study reported a willingness to pay closer to $300 per tonne.
Corporate participation also remains limited. According to Accenture’s Jesko Neuenburg, only around 15% of surveyed corporates are purchasing SAF certificates today, while most are waiting for prices to decline, carbon accounting rules to become clearer and procurement processes to become simpler.
Airlines currently account for approximately 53% of corporate SAF certificate purchases, making them the largest source of certificates for companies seeking to address emissions associated with business travel and air freight.
IATA and Airbus Call for Greater Corporate Participation
IATA argues that corporate buyers can help share the cost of scaling SAF production, provided the market offers credible emissions accounting and straightforward purchasing arrangements.
“SAF is aviation’s most important decarbonization lever, but airlines cannot shoulder the cost of scaling it up alone,” said Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA’s Senior Vice President Sustainability and Chief Economist.
Thomsen said corporate buyers could help finance the transition while obtaining recognized Scope 3 emissions reductions, but stressed that companies need confidence that their contributions will count and that the purchasing process is simple and credible.
Airbus also identified corporate demand as a potential source of financing for SAF expansion. Julien Manhes, Vice President, Sustainable Aviation Fuel and Carbon Dioxide Removal Development at Airbus, said book-and-claim mechanisms could provide the accounting certainty needed for companies to help fund the SAF price premium.
According to Manhes, converting potential corporate interest into firm purchasing commitments would send fuel producers a stronger near-term demand signal, supporting production growth and potentially lowering costs across the industry.
Accenture’s Neuenburg said airlines that establish SAF cost-recovery capabilities now could be better positioned as the certificate market expands. He highlighted the need to focus on sectors where demand is emerging and to make SAF attributes easier to purchase through transparent pricing, partnerships and scalable systems.
Three Priorities to Unlock Corporate SAF Purchases
The IATA, Airbus and Accenture study identifies three priorities for increasing corporate participation in the SAF environmental attribute certificate market:
- Clear carbon accounting rules: Companies need consistent standards that provide confidence that purchased emissions reductions will be recognized.
- Transparent tracking and verification: Interoperable systems must prevent double counting and preserve the environmental integrity of SAF certificates.
- Simpler purchasing mechanisms: Greater price transparency, lower minimum purchase volumes and shorter contract durations could make participation more accessible.
The study also cautions that corporate purchases alone will not deliver the volume of SAF required for aviation’s decarbonization. Continued government support, effective incentives and a significant expansion of production capacity will remain necessary.
Bioenergy Business Analysis: Demand Signals Must Translate Into Production Investment
For SAF producers, the potential growth in corporate certificate purchases offers a route to broaden the revenue base supporting fuel production, particularly while physical supply remains limited and production costs remain high. The projected increase from 323,000 tonnes in 2024 to as much as 1.9 million tonnes supported by corporate purchases in 2030 indicates substantial potential, but it is a forecast of market support rather than a guarantee of physical fuel output.
The commercial test will be whether improved accounting standards, transparent tracking and simpler contracts convert corporate climate commitments into long-term purchasing commitments that help finance new production capacity. Airlines, fuel producers, certificate providers and policymakers will need to coordinate these mechanisms with investment, incentives and supply expansion. Without those measures, corporate demand may remain constrained by the same price and procurement barriers identified in the study.
