US ethanol exports could set another annual record as expanding overseas markets and trade opportunities support demand for American fuel ethanol, according to Luke Lindberg, Undersecretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs at the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).
Lindberg said new and expanding international markets are strengthening demand, putting exports on course for a potential third consecutive record year. He also highlighted the recent US–UK trade deal, which included provisions for ethanol, as a factor that could support shipments to the British market.
Export demand supports US ethanol market
The United States remains the world’s largest producer and exporter of fuel ethanol. Its key export destinations include Canada, the United Kingdom, India and the Netherlands, where demand is supported in part by policies promoting the use of renewable fuels.
Data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that American fuel ethanol exports averaged approximately 138,000 barrels per day during the first seven months of 2025. That was a record for the January-to-July period in the EIA’s data series and was 9% above the previous full-year export record set in 2024. The Netherlands accounted for much of the growth during that period, while Canada remained the largest destination.
The broader export trend has continued. USDA figures released in September 2026 reported that the United States exported a record 2.2 billion gallons of ethanol in 2025, valued at approximately $4.7 billion. The USDA also said that 2026 exports were ahead of the previous year’s record pace through June, although full-year performance will depend on how shipments develop during the remainder of the year.
UK trade deal could create further opportunities
The US–UK trade agreement is another potential driver of ethanol trade. The agreement, finalised in May 2025, removed the UK’s 19% import tariff on US ethanol within an annual quota of 370 million gallons. However, US shipments to the UK totalled just over 177 million gallons in 2025, down 27% from 2024, according to a USDA report. This suggests that the agreement creates room for increased trade, but does not by itself guarantee higher exports.
For US producers, continued growth in overseas demand offers a route to expand sales beyond the domestic market. Export performance will depend on demand in importing countries, the implementation of renewable-fuel policies, trade conditions and competition from other ethanol-producing countries.
With exports already reaching record levels in recent years, the pace of international demand will be central to determining whether the United States achieves another annual high.
Bioenergy Business Analysis
US ethanol exports show how renewable-fuel blending policies and international trade arrangements can shape demand for agricultural biofuels. Canada remains a major destination, while the Netherlands, the UK and India are important markets. The UK trade deal could support additional shipments, but the 2025 decline in US exports to Britain indicates that tariff relief alone may not be enough to drive growth.
The immediate question is whether the strong pace reported for 2026 can be sustained through year-end. A further record would reinforce the role of exports in the US ethanol market, linking international biofuel demand with domestic production and agricultural supply. However, the latest full-year outcome remains unconfirmed.
