The US sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) market is entering a period of technological expansion alongside changes to federal incentives, with alcohol-to-jet (AtJ) and power-to-liquid (PtL) projects emerging as important pathways for future production.
Research firm IDTechEx expects new SAF technologies and production facilities to influence the US market over the coming decade, while the economics of projects will remain closely linked to feedstock, renewable power and policy conditions.
The policy landscape changed significantly with the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, enacted in July 2025. Under amendments to the Section 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit, the special higher credit rate for SAF was removed for fuel produced after December 31, 2025. Eligible transportation fuel produced after that date can receive a base credit of $0.20 per gallon or an alternative amount of $1 per gallon when prevailing wage and apprenticeship requirements are met, subject to emissions-factor and other requirements.
The legislation also extended Section 45Z through the end of 2029 and introduced restrictions on eligible feedstocks and certain foreign entities.
AtJ technology moves into commercial production
One of the technologies gaining commercial-scale experience in the US is alcohol-to-jet, which converts alcohol feedstocks such as ethanol into jet fuel.
LanzaJet’s Freedom Pines Fuels facility in Soperton, Georgia, is designed to produce up to 10 million gallons of sustainable fuels annually. The facility is the world’s first commercial ethanol-to-SAF plant and is designed to produce around nine million gallons of SAF and one million gallons of renewable diesel in its initial operating configuration.
The facility uses LanzaJet’s ATJ process together with Technip Energies’ Hummingbird technology. The latter is integrated into the process for converting ethanol-derived intermediates into products suitable for fuel production.
The project provides a commercial reference point for the wider deployment of AtJ technology, while also demonstrating the importance of ethanol supply to the economics of the pathway.
LanzaJet has said Freedom Pines will source low-carbon ethanol, including ethanol from waste-based feedstocks. The company also has offtake agreements in place and has positioned the facility as a platform for scaling its technology to other markets.
Infinium advances PtL SAF production in Texas
A different production model is being developed by Infinium through Project Roadrunner in West Texas.
The project will use renewable electricity, captured carbon dioxide and green hydrogen to manufacture synthetic fuels, primarily eSAF, alongside e-diesel and e-naphtha. Infinium expects Roadrunner to produce approximately 23,000 tonnes per year, or about 7.6 million gallons, of combined eSAF and other e-fuel products once operational. Commercial operations are expected in 2027.
Roadrunner has secured 150 MW of new wind generation capacity through a long-term power purchase agreement with a subsidiary of NextEra Energy Resources. The project is also using a 100 MW electrolyser system to produce hydrogen for the PtL process.
Infinium reached final investment decision on Roadrunner in 2025, with Brookfield Asset Management and Breakthrough Energy Catalyst among the project investors. HSBC subsequently provided project-based financing. Long-term offtake agreements have also been secured with American Airlines and International Airlines Group.
Feedstock and power costs remain central to SAF economics
The emergence of AtJ and PtL provides the US market with different routes towards SAF production, but the two pathways face different economic constraints.
AtJ projects depend on reliable supplies of suitable low-carbon alcohol feedstocks, particularly ethanol. Feedstock availability, carbon intensity and pricing can therefore influence the cost and emissions performance of the resulting SAF.
PtL projects face a different cost structure. They require substantial quantities of renewable electricity to produce hydrogen through electrolysis, as well as a suitable source of carbon dioxide.
Roadrunner illustrates this integration by combining dedicated renewable electricity, electrolysis, captured COâ‚‚ and fuel synthesis within one production system.
As US electricity generation capacity expands, access to competitively priced renewable power could become increasingly important for e-fuel economics. However, the cost of electricity, electrolyser utilisation, hydrogen production, COâ‚‚ sourcing and downstream conversion will all influence the competitiveness of PtL SAF.
Policy will remain a major factor
The changing Section 45Z framework adds another variable to project economics.
The current credit is available for qualifying clean transportation fuel produced and sold through December 31, 2029. For fuel produced after December 31, 2025, the SAF-specific higher credit amounts no longer apply, while the remaining credit is linked to the applicable amount, emissions factor and prevailing wage and apprenticeship requirements. Eligible fuels must also meet new feedstock-origin requirements.
This means SAF developers must assess projects against both technology and policy conditions over long investment horizons.
For first-of-a-kind facilities, the ability to secure long-term offtake agreements, project financing, feedstock supplies and renewable power can be particularly important to reducing commercial risk. Roadrunner, for example, has combined project equity, debt financing, dedicated wind capacity and long-term airline offtake arrangements.
Bioenergy Business Analysis
The US SAF market is increasingly moving beyond a single technology pathway. AtJ provides a route for converting established alcohol feedstocks into aviation fuel, while PtL can produce synthetic aviation fuels from renewable electricity, hydrogen and captured carbon dioxide.
The commercial performance of these pathways will depend on more than technology readiness. Feedstock and electricity costs, carbon intensity, plant utilisation, financing structures, offtake agreements and the durability of federal policy incentives will all influence project economics.
The policy changes to Section 45Z therefore arrive at a significant stage for the US SAF industry. Projects such as Freedom Pines and Roadrunner provide commercial-scale demonstrations of different production models, but their longer-term competitiveness will depend on how technology costs develop alongside the US feedstock, electricity and regulatory environment.
For SAF producers and investors, the next phase of the market is likely to be defined by the interaction between technology choice, feedstock economics, renewable power availability and policy support, rather than by a single dominant production pathway.
